Episode 09 - Here we go!

For all you Survivor fans out there - this is the moment you've all been waiting for - this is where the game starts to get fun.

Up until Jury time, the game of Survivor is strictly a sifting process. Alliances are made, sinners (see 10 Commandments post) the weak are voted out. Up to this point you could almost predict who was going to go - and even if you couldn't predict the exact person, you could certainly narrow it down to two or three people. But now that the tribes have merged and the jury begins forming - this game becomes extremely unpredictable.

You could see from Episode 09 that even members of the alliance are starting to become very paranoid. Even Stephanie is trying very hard to back off her aura as "leader" to make herself less of a target. Anything can happen at this point in the game. And although it's really an exercise in futility to predict the outcome - I'd like to give it a shot anyway:

Unlike previous series of Survivor, the females in Guatemala are too fractious to attempt to allign. Dannie needed one more female in her alliance in order to get together with Steph, Lydia and Cindy who currently feel no need to band together with Danni. So the female thing is out.
Here's another scenario that might be played out. Now that Gary has a guarantee for Final 4 - wouldn't you think that , Jamie or Cindy would try to allign with him? They HAVE to know (unless I'M wrong) that they are low priority on the main alliance. Why not make a play now for Gary's allegiance? Almost every Survivor since the game began has seen the primary alliance be overthrown. Over the next two episodes, we may see the same thing.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 75%