Episode 11 - Starving Survivors
"And Esau said to Jacob, Feed me, I pray thee, with that same red pottage; for I am faint: And Jacob said, Sell me this day thy birthright. And Esau said, Behold, I am at the point to die: and what profit shall this birthright do to me? And Jacob said, Swear to me this day; and he sware unto him: and he sold his birthright unto Jacob."
Genesis 25:30-34
There's an analogy to be had here: Lydia is Esau. Jacob is a reward challenge with food. The birthright is the $1,000,000 Survivor grand prize. So what did Lydia do in this past episode? She sold her chance for the million dollars for a few shishkabobs! Or more accurately, for a lousy cup of fermented fish soup with some ground coffee beans - at least Esau was able to eat some hearty lentils. I suppose there's still a chance for Lydia in this game - stranger things have happened in Survivor (recall Sandra from Survivor Pearl Islands). Everyone in this game WILL have the chance to eat food again - but NOT everyone will have the chance to win $1,000,000 again. Perspective.
OK, so - what's up with Cindy's habitual nail biting???
Anyway - did anyone find it interesting that EVERYONE voted for Gary in TC? Even Danni and Lydia voted for Gary. This tells us something very interesting... this tells us that Danni was encouraged to vote Gary out to show the Four that she can be trusted. Someone was testing Danni's loyalty with this vote and it seems that she passed the test. Hmmmm.
Also, I admit that I was way off in my prediction from last week. I took a long shot and it didn't materialize. This foursome is WAY stronger than I realized. Actually, what I didn't realize is how tight Rafe & Cindy are. I almost think that Rafe and Cindy are tighter than Rafe & Stephanie. So how could that fact influence the final episodes? Let's look at how this may play out:
Episode 12: Lydia tries to break the Four but is unsuccessful. Lydia is next to go.
Episode 13: By showing loyalty in Episode 11, Danni is able to allign with Rafe, Cindy and Stephanie. Judd, if he loses immunity, is voted out.
Episode 14: If Danni loses immunity, she is voted out as the lowest person on the totem pole.
Episode 15: Every man/woman for themselves.
You know, I'm really going to be upset if Stephanie makes it all the way to the end. It would just be nice to see her get blindsided like Jamie was last episode wouldn't it? I remember how much I just wanted Tom from Survivor 10 to get blindsided - but by Day 30 it seems that the Survivors become increasingly unstable, unable to make strategic decisions. So, Tom ended up winning the game - just like Stephanie might here.
Voting Predictions
Let's just pretend Stephanie and Rafe made it to the end. Who would the jury choose?
Bobby John - Stephanie
Jamie - Stephanie
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Stephanie
Cindy - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Rafe wins
What about if Rafe & Cindy made it to the end?
BJ - Rafe
Jamie - Cindy
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Stephanie - Rafe
Rafe wins again
Rafe as a threat
So Rafe wins another immunity - very interesting. You know that Stephanie is turning over in her mind how things would need to turn out in order to be in her favor. Stephanie now knows Rafe is strong - but does that change the way she plays the game at this point? I'm not sure. One thing is for sure, the person that continues to win immunities may very well be one of the Survivors sitting at the final Tribal Council. This person could very well be Rafe. Little gay Mormon indeed.
Rafe's current odds for the win - 85%
Genesis 25:30-34
There's an analogy to be had here: Lydia is Esau. Jacob is a reward challenge with food. The birthright is the $1,000,000 Survivor grand prize. So what did Lydia do in this past episode? She sold her chance for the million dollars for a few shishkabobs! Or more accurately, for a lousy cup of fermented fish soup with some ground coffee beans - at least Esau was able to eat some hearty lentils. I suppose there's still a chance for Lydia in this game - stranger things have happened in Survivor (recall Sandra from Survivor Pearl Islands). Everyone in this game WILL have the chance to eat food again - but NOT everyone will have the chance to win $1,000,000 again. Perspective.
OK, so - what's up with Cindy's habitual nail biting???
Anyway - did anyone find it interesting that EVERYONE voted for Gary in TC? Even Danni and Lydia voted for Gary. This tells us something very interesting... this tells us that Danni was encouraged to vote Gary out to show the Four that she can be trusted. Someone was testing Danni's loyalty with this vote and it seems that she passed the test. Hmmmm.
Also, I admit that I was way off in my prediction from last week. I took a long shot and it didn't materialize. This foursome is WAY stronger than I realized. Actually, what I didn't realize is how tight Rafe & Cindy are. I almost think that Rafe and Cindy are tighter than Rafe & Stephanie. So how could that fact influence the final episodes? Let's look at how this may play out:
Episode 12: Lydia tries to break the Four but is unsuccessful. Lydia is next to go.
Episode 13: By showing loyalty in Episode 11, Danni is able to allign with Rafe, Cindy and Stephanie. Judd, if he loses immunity, is voted out.
Episode 14: If Danni loses immunity, she is voted out as the lowest person on the totem pole.
Episode 15: Every man/woman for themselves.
You know, I'm really going to be upset if Stephanie makes it all the way to the end. It would just be nice to see her get blindsided like Jamie was last episode wouldn't it? I remember how much I just wanted Tom from Survivor 10 to get blindsided - but by Day 30 it seems that the Survivors become increasingly unstable, unable to make strategic decisions. So, Tom ended up winning the game - just like Stephanie might here.
Voting Predictions
Let's just pretend Stephanie and Rafe made it to the end. Who would the jury choose?
Bobby John - Stephanie
Jamie - Stephanie
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Stephanie
Cindy - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Rafe wins
What about if Rafe & Cindy made it to the end?
BJ - Rafe
Jamie - Cindy
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Stephanie - Rafe
Rafe wins again
Rafe as a threat
So Rafe wins another immunity - very interesting. You know that Stephanie is turning over in her mind how things would need to turn out in order to be in her favor. Stephanie now knows Rafe is strong - but does that change the way she plays the game at this point? I'm not sure. One thing is for sure, the person that continues to win immunities may very well be one of the Survivors sitting at the final Tribal Council. This person could very well be Rafe. Little gay Mormon indeed.
Rafe's current odds for the win - 85%
posted by Brad Webb at
8:39 PM
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