Episode 13 - Superstition Plays Out
We can all thank the Survivor editors and producers for putting us on pins & needles last night during TC! It was the first time that I thought Rafe had a possibility of being voted out. It's getting down to the time where there is really no such thing as an alliance anymore - at least the good players know that. Lydia is the only one left that thinks that her alliance still stands by her. She will be the next one gone.
I've told you before that I believe that it will be Rafe and Stephanie at the final two. From Stephanie's perspective because she is tightest with Rafe and from Rafe's perspective because he has the greatest chance to win against Stephanie. But let's look through two scenarios that could possibly come to pass...
Scenario One
Episode 14 - Lydia is voted out (can't win immunity, lowest on totem pole, no strategic value, etc.)
Episode 15 - Immunity challenge between Rafe, Steph and Danni. So, what if Dannie (against the odds) wins this challenge? Who will be voted out then? It comes down to Danni's best chance to win and I think she sees that chance in Stephanie. Dannie loves Rafe, but I think she would be smart and take Steph to the final two if it came down to that. So, if Danni wins immunity on Episode 15 (finale), then Rafe's chances to win go in the toilet.
Remember, however, that this final challenge will be an endurance challenge. Standing on a pole for 10 hours or something to that effect. Who is best equipped to win this challenge? As much as I believe in Rafe's winning abilities, I believe that Stephanie has the athletic talent and mental will to win the endurance challenge. Yet, Danni is athletic too but her record for individual challenges is not stellar. Rafe is excellent at mind games, puzzles, untying knots, balancing, etc. but I don't think he would win an endurance challenge against Stephanie.
So the likliest outcome in Scenrio One is that Lydia is voted out next. Then Stephanie wins the immunity challenge. But in this case, will Stephanie actually take Rafe or Danni? I believe that she sees her best chance in Rafe because Dannie would probably get the most votes from the Jury because she's not seen as the mastermind behind some of their ousters. Therefore Stephanie takes Rafe and, as predicted before - Rafe wins against Steph.
Scenario Two
Episode 14 - Dannie is voted out because she is seen as too much of a threat to the original alliance and a competitor to Stephanie
Episode 15 - Wouldn't it be just so ironic if Lydia were to win the final endurance challenge?! This is within the realm of possibility here - although not a likely event. If Lydia were to win the endurance challenge, who would she take with her to the end? If she voted from her heart, it would have to be Rafe. Stephanie and Lydia have NOT developed the friendship that Rafe has built with Lydia. If she went with here mind, Lydia would have to choose Stephanie for the reason that ANYONE would chose Stephanie in the final two - she's pissed off too many people AND she already had her chance at winning. Steph is the right choice for anyone to take to the end.
What do you think will happen?
Rafe's current odds for the win - 95%
I've told you before that I believe that it will be Rafe and Stephanie at the final two. From Stephanie's perspective because she is tightest with Rafe and from Rafe's perspective because he has the greatest chance to win against Stephanie. But let's look through two scenarios that could possibly come to pass...
Scenario One
Episode 14 - Lydia is voted out (can't win immunity, lowest on totem pole, no strategic value, etc.)
Episode 15 - Immunity challenge between Rafe, Steph and Danni. So, what if Dannie (against the odds) wins this challenge? Who will be voted out then? It comes down to Danni's best chance to win and I think she sees that chance in Stephanie. Dannie loves Rafe, but I think she would be smart and take Steph to the final two if it came down to that. So, if Danni wins immunity on Episode 15 (finale), then Rafe's chances to win go in the toilet.
Remember, however, that this final challenge will be an endurance challenge. Standing on a pole for 10 hours or something to that effect. Who is best equipped to win this challenge? As much as I believe in Rafe's winning abilities, I believe that Stephanie has the athletic talent and mental will to win the endurance challenge. Yet, Danni is athletic too but her record for individual challenges is not stellar. Rafe is excellent at mind games, puzzles, untying knots, balancing, etc. but I don't think he would win an endurance challenge against Stephanie.
So the likliest outcome in Scenrio One is that Lydia is voted out next. Then Stephanie wins the immunity challenge. But in this case, will Stephanie actually take Rafe or Danni? I believe that she sees her best chance in Rafe because Dannie would probably get the most votes from the Jury because she's not seen as the mastermind behind some of their ousters. Therefore Stephanie takes Rafe and, as predicted before - Rafe wins against Steph.
Scenario Two
Episode 14 - Dannie is voted out because she is seen as too much of a threat to the original alliance and a competitor to Stephanie
Episode 15 - Wouldn't it be just so ironic if Lydia were to win the final endurance challenge?! This is within the realm of possibility here - although not a likely event. If Lydia were to win the endurance challenge, who would she take with her to the end? If she voted from her heart, it would have to be Rafe. Stephanie and Lydia have NOT developed the friendship that Rafe has built with Lydia. If she went with here mind, Lydia would have to choose Stephanie for the reason that ANYONE would chose Stephanie in the final two - she's pissed off too many people AND she already had her chance at winning. Steph is the right choice for anyone to take to the end.
What do you think will happen?
Rafe's current odds for the win - 95%
posted by Brad Webb at
9:37 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home