Episode 02 - Yaxha Analysis

There's an expression in Greek called "panta paron" that is used to describe people that seem to be everywhere at the same time. That is exactly the way I felt about Rafe during episode two. When we saw Yaxha strategizing about who should be voted off, Rafe always seemed to be in on the conversations. Jamie voiced why Stephanie should go - Rafe was there. When Gary is talking to Amy about which way to vote - Rafe is there. He seemed to have a presence in several circles during the strategizing - and all the while helping out with the tribe (getting water, carrying wood, etc). We all know that timely information is the most valuable possession in this game. The fact that Rafe is acting on this shows he'll be spending quite a number of days playing this game.

Needless to say, it seems quite clear to me that the dominant alliance on Yaxha is Gary (leader) Stephanie, Rafe and Amy. Stephanie and Rafe are consciously allowing Gary to continue his assumed leadership role and indeed, are encouraging it. Way to go Rafe - keep helping Gary in breaking the 3rd commandment! Another thing that proved this point to me was the fact that the vote was changed from Lydia to Morgan. And if the editors weren't screwing with us, we know that Lydia made a major appeal to Gary for her life and it seems that he had the influence to save her. I'm not sure how much influence Brian had in this decision - but I'm guessing quite a bit due to his voting comment.

Gary has now shown his naiveté in this game (conversation with Lydia). He is the perfect loyal subject to keep as part of a strong alliance and then boot when you get to the end. He'll never see it coming.

Jamie? You pissed on Stephanie which pretty much means you're a dead man walking. You need to work on your opening game short timer.

Brianna - I don't get the sense you know how to really play this game. We didn't see much of your strategy from episode 2, but you strike me as someone who will be content to go with the majority until you realize too late that you're not really part of the majority.

Morgan...oh, Morgan why did you break the 1st commandment of Survivor?? You were a tough competitor and so easy on the eyes. We simply couldn't abide to see the Survivor "watchability factor" decrease with your recent ousting. Would it have killed you to help with the fire once in a while?

Rafe's current odds for the win - 0.06% (or 1 in 16)

The 10 Commandments of Survivor

I realize that some of you are die-hard Survivor fans, while others may be watching for their first time. For the neophytes, I offer - "The 10 Commandments of Survivor". These of course are of my own creation, but have been distilled and refined over the course of the past 10 seasons. If I missed one - please let me know:

• Thou shalt not be lazy under the guise of "saving my strength for the challenges"
• Thou shalt get to know thy tribemates
• Thou shalt not take an overt leadership role
• Thou shalt provide food & water for thy tribemates
• Thou shalt not loose thy cool with thy tribemates, ie. thou shalt be friendly
• Thou shalt be a tough competitor, but not TOO tough
• Thou shalt make alliances early in the game
• Thou shalt be true to thy original alliances
• If thou wins an award challenge to some fantastic location, thou shalt choose a companion to accompany thee based on a method that seems absolutely fair to the rest of thy tribemates and furthers thy strategy in the game.
• Thou shalt trust no one

Survivor Guatemala Has Begun!

Well folks, another season of Survivor is upon us. The DVR is cued, the priority settings confirmed and Thursday nights start to carry an air of excitement and anticipation. This season of Survivor is particularly unique because one of my own flesh-and-blood relatives is a contestant! The closest connection I've had to a previous Survivor was Neleh Dennis from Survivor Marquesas who happened to live in the same town at the time - and who, by thy way, made it to the #2 spot behind Vecepia (proving beyond a doubt that luck does play a major role in this game). Because you're reading this blog, you already know who I'm talking about. That's right - Rafe Judkins (my 1st cousin) is a contestant on Survivor Guatemala and is well on his way in making his mark as one of the Survivor Greats.

I encourage you to participate with me in analyzing the players, the strategy and any predictions for Ultimate Survivor that you may have. Just click on the "comments" link below every post to add your own comments to this blog.