Episode 07 - Twain Becomes One

Well, Rafe has successfully made it to the merge - a very special accomplishment since every member of the new tribe will be "in play" until the end of the game as a member of the Survivor Jury.

Alliances to date
Core alliance:
Steph
Rafe
Gary

Secondary alliance:
Steph, Rafe, Gary, Lydia, Jamie

Tertiary alliance:
Steph, Rafe, Gary, Lydia, Jamie, Judd

Possible alliance:
Gary, Danni, BJ, Brandon

Prediction
The core alliance will continue to stand strong. Gary, Rafe & Stephanie will reform their bonds now that the merge has taken place and create a plan to eliminate all others. They are sitting in a very nice position to do so because the rest of the tribe is so fractured. However, Stephanie is playing very stupidly right now by breaking one of the Survivor commandments - taking a leadership role. It's very clear that she is running the show and she isn't taking any steps to back off. This will get her kicked off in the next 4 episodes - she will not make the final 4. A new core alliance of Rafe, Gary, Danni and Brandon will be formed and they will be the Final 4 contenders.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 65%

Episode 06 - Rafe Outed!

Episode 06 will go down in Survivor history. It was an episode of historic 1sts. It was the first time we saw two tribe members face off (literally) after a challenge. It was the first time that a tribe member was SO vocal towards his tribe during a TC. And it was the first time that a human was run over by a giant jungle ball (Indiana Jones was chased by a giant jungle ball too as you remember, yet was able to escape unharmed - unlike poor Amy).

Merge on the horizon?
If next week is truly the merge of the two tribes - then Rafe & Steph will be able to reunite with their original alliance with Gary & Amy. This, I believe, is the core alliance in the game right now. In addition, Steph & Rafe have a loyal following in Lydia and can add her as a secondary alliance. The other tribe members are so fractured right now that they couldn't possibly pose a threat to the core alliance.

Rafe put on the spot at TC
Rafe's strategy in this game is to make others think that he is just along for the ride - but, compliments of the other hot mouth in this game - Jamie, it has been made clear that this strategy is not very appreciated by some. "HAVE AN OPINION RAFE!" were the words shouted in Rafe's direction by Jamie. Could it be that Rafe's equity has been somewhat decreased in this game by that comment? Has Rafe's strategy been "outed" in front of his tribe?

Rafe's current odds for the win - 60%

Episode 05 - Continued Improvement

Wow - what a great episode last night! Not only was it greatly entertaining, it also proved an improvement in Rafe's chances for the million dollars - which is what this blog is all about.

Survivor Insight for the week: The problem of pride
We sometimes hear and think about "pride" in a religious context and how we should aim to have less of it. But let us not forget that pride can also have devastating effects as a contestant on Survivor. Case in point - Jamie and his blowout stupid move on last night's reward challenge. "Survivors ready - go!" Brandon rushes over and proceeds to hack at the rope, splitting it in about 4 seconds, after which Jeff says, "Yaxha done with first rope!" So what does Jamie do? Does he take Brandon's lead and hack through the rope too? NO! He stubbornly sticks to his own style of sawing the rope and proceeds to affect the biggest challenge loss in the history of Survivor.

Nakum
Although Stephanie complains about her "sucky" tribe ad nauseum, a loss of the immunity challenge wouldn't have been bad for Rafe's position in the tribe. Although I don't get the feeling that Rafe and Stephanie are really tightening their secondary alliance with Jamie and Lydia - a crucial step at this point in the game to prevent mutiny instigated by Margaret and Cindy. I just love Cindy - I certainly hope she remains in the game!

Yaxha
Wow - big shocker at the end of the vote! Blake must have been pretty annoying to have 2 solid ex-tribemates voting for him. So how could this have happened so soon after alliances were formed with BJ & Brandon? Well, Bobby John was successfully turned (I don't consider Danni to have been "turned" since she didn't like Blake anyway). How was BJ turned? In a word - Gary. Gary is assuming control of the new Yaxha tribe quite nicely. It seems as if he has Amy & BJ firmly on his side (Brian is more of a wild card as is Dannie since she knows his true identity). Brandon - pull your head out dude, this is Survivor! I am starting to think that Gary & Amy will begin losing the relationship ties that they had with Steph & Rafe though - especially with the ultra-competitive nature of these challenges. This may not bode well for Rafe after the merge if Nakum keeps losing people.

Final thoughts on this episode
I think Rafe's chances to win improved with this episode. Nakum remains strong. Gary & Amy are not only still alive on Yaxha but strong emergent leaders.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 65%

Episode 04 - Game On

I had the unique opportunity to watch episode 4 of Survivor Guatemala in Salt Lake City at a party held in honor of Rafe. He spent quite a bit of time answering questions from the audience on Survivor trivia and strategy. I have a much better understanding of some of those things that you always wondered about Survivor - such as "can you kill the monkeys?"

OK: episode 04 made the game very interesting - especially for the alliance of Rafe, Stephanie, Gary and Amy (which alliance, by the way, was in fact confirmed by Rafe - you read it here first people!)

Sitting pretty
Rafe is in a wonderful situation right now. He and Stephanie are now rock solid with the loss of Amy and Gary. Now that they've flipped Judd, they can easily pick off the remaining women if needed (but PLEASE don't vote for Cindy - not yet!) I'm sure that Stephanie and Rafe have strengthened their ties with Jamie and Lydia, although they were not members of the original alliance. What Stephanie needs to do now is make a phony alliance with Jamie and tell him that she's really not that tight with Rafe and Lydia. Then they need to go in with Judd and make him think that he's not the odd man out in this new tribe. Essentially, that makes it very easy for Rafe and Stephanie to get to the merge and hopefully (but not likely) hook up with Gary and Amy again and ride their original alliance all the way to the end!

Game theorizing
Possibility #1: If Nakum looses another immunity challenge, they will vote off Margaret first, then Cindy. I don't think Stephanie likes Cindy - she's too tough a player.

#2: If Yaxha looses the immunity, Amy is easily the first to go, followed by the ultra-annoying Brian and then Gary. This means that Gary has a decent chance to make it to the merge since they probably won't lose that many challenges.

#3: We really don't know much about the alliances on the new Yaxha tribe - other than Blake & Bobby John. Brandon and Dannie seem to be undecideds at this point.

Final thoughts:
I can see a clear path for Rafe to get to the final four - but it's way too early in the game to make this prediction. If they don't mix up the tribes again, it's a sure thing that he'll at least make it to the jury. The new Nakum tribe may end up loosing a couple more immunity challenges, but to the degree that they can vote out the old Nakum members (Margaret, Cindy & Judd) it only makes it more likely that they will meet up with the old Yaxha members (Gary, Amy & brian) for the merge. It's almost a no-loose situation. They can either win or loose challenges and still come out looking decent.

The game is on.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 40%

Episode 03 - The curse of Steph

I apologize for the delay in this week's post. I was busy spending time with my wife as she gave birth to our 4th child (pictures available on my personal web site - link to the right).

Well, it's the end of the 3rd episode and the Yaxha tribe seems to be doomed. I'm sure you remember from Survivor Palau that it doesn't fare well for a tribe to be whittled down to 1 or 2 members before the merge. And unfortunately, that's where Yaxha seems to be going. So here are a few thoughts about this past week's episode.

Sayonara Brianna!
Doesn't it just add to the entertainment value of the show to watch someone like Brianna get kicked off? Some people are so fun to hate. I happened to watch CBS's The Morning Show on Friday when Brianna was interviewed. It was so amusing to hear the interviewer totally rail on her for not having a clue how to play basketball when she listed basketball as one of her favorite sports on her Survivor Bio!

Interviewer: "So do you now know what a pick is?"
Brianna (laughing ignorantly): "Duh....what?"

Yaxha's Balance of Power
So who is really running the show over at Yaxha? Who is holding the tribe together? Who wields the most influence? It was interesting to see the entire tribe voting unanimously to vote Brianna off, because that means not only that the communication lines are wide open but that the hierarchy of power is working well. The way it usually works is that the core alliance makes the decision and then trickles the info down to the secondary alliances. But who is in this core Yaxha alliance? I'm still putting my money on Steph, Rafe, Gary and Amy.

Stephanie's Curse
Well, Stephanie's tribe is on a losing streak - again. It's almost funny to watch her get SO caught up in the winning of challenges. I get the feeling from watching the show that she doesn't even care about the rewards! Her passionate and intense desire to win got her kicked off in Palau - and will almost surely get her kicked off in Guatemala.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 30%