Episode 11 - Starving Survivors

"And Esau said to Jacob, Feed me, I pray thee, with that same red pottage; for I am faint: And Jacob said, Sell me this day thy birthright. And Esau said, Behold, I am at the point to die: and what profit shall this birthright do to me? And Jacob said, Swear to me this day; and he sware unto him: and he sold his birthright unto Jacob."
Genesis 25:30-34

There's an analogy to be had here: Lydia is Esau. Jacob is a reward challenge with food. The birthright is the $1,000,000 Survivor grand prize. So what did Lydia do in this past episode? She sold her chance for the million dollars for a few shishkabobs! Or more accurately, for a lousy cup of fermented fish soup with some ground coffee beans - at least Esau was able to eat some hearty lentils. I suppose there's still a chance for Lydia in this game - stranger things have happened in Survivor (recall Sandra from Survivor Pearl Islands). Everyone in this game WILL have the chance to eat food again - but NOT everyone will have the chance to win $1,000,000 again. Perspective.

OK, so - what's up with Cindy's habitual nail biting???

Anyway - did anyone find it interesting that EVERYONE voted for Gary in TC? Even Danni and Lydia voted for Gary. This tells us something very interesting... this tells us that Danni was encouraged to vote Gary out to show the Four that she can be trusted. Someone was testing Danni's loyalty with this vote and it seems that she passed the test. Hmmmm.

Also, I admit that I was way off in my prediction from last week. I took a long shot and it didn't materialize. This foursome is WAY stronger than I realized. Actually, what I didn't realize is how tight Rafe & Cindy are. I almost think that Rafe and Cindy are tighter than Rafe & Stephanie. So how could that fact influence the final episodes? Let's look at how this may play out:

Episode 12: Lydia tries to break the Four but is unsuccessful. Lydia is next to go.

Episode 13: By showing loyalty in Episode 11, Danni is able to allign with Rafe, Cindy and Stephanie. Judd, if he loses immunity, is voted out.

Episode 14: If Danni loses immunity, she is voted out as the lowest person on the totem pole.

Episode 15: Every man/woman for themselves.

You know, I'm really going to be upset if Stephanie makes it all the way to the end. It would just be nice to see her get blindsided like Jamie was last episode wouldn't it? I remember how much I just wanted Tom from Survivor 10 to get blindsided - but by Day 30 it seems that the Survivors become increasingly unstable, unable to make strategic decisions. So, Tom ended up winning the game - just like Stephanie might here.

Voting Predictions
Let's just pretend Stephanie and Rafe made it to the end. Who would the jury choose?
Bobby John - Stephanie
Jamie - Stephanie
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Stephanie
Cindy - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Rafe wins

What about if Rafe & Cindy made it to the end?
BJ - Rafe
Jamie - Cindy
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Stephanie - Rafe
Rafe wins again

Rafe as a threat
So Rafe wins another immunity - very interesting. You know that Stephanie is turning over in her mind how things would need to turn out in order to be in her favor. Stephanie now knows Rafe is strong - but does that change the way she plays the game at this point? I'm not sure. One thing is for sure, the person that continues to win immunities may very well be one of the Survivors sitting at the final Tribal Council. This person could very well be Rafe. Little gay Mormon indeed.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 85%

Episode 10 - The Madness of Jamie

Oh my - what an episode we were treated with last Thursday - the best yet!

Was it great to see Jamie go or what? He was, without a doubt, the looniest, most deranged, vindictive, unkind, dim-witted, malicious, self-obsessed Survivor to ever play the game - bar none! And by the way, I don't think it was the "game" that made him go nuts. More on this topic in a second. But first a few observations from my favorite episode of Guatemala.

Is Dannie cute as a button or what? My wife is reading over my shoulder right now so I can't get too detailed - but what a cutie she is - but NOT as cute as my wife. If Dannie were just a bit more strategic (which she may be off camera), she would be my favorite female Survivor of all time. I am a little concerned that she loves her dogs THAT much. What's up with that?

Cindy - I don't like her game play. Enough said.

So now let's get down to Rafe's performance in Episode 10. The first thing I wonder about is his drive to win immunity challenges. I realize that no one's ever "safe" in this game, but there's something to be said for strategic restraint in some of these challenges. I don't think Rafe's reached the point to where people are starting to eye him as a target (after all, he IS Steph's lap dog), but as he said in the show, he may want to start thinking about his winning percentage.

Secondly, it seemed to me from this episode that Rafe was the sole engineer of Jamie's ouster. Jamie finally gets under Rafe's skin. Rafe decided to vote him out. Rafe went to Lydia to get her support. Rafe & Lydia both bring it up with Queen Bee. Things happen. Could this be a foreshadowing of how future people will be voted out?

Top Dog
Did anyone find it telling that in the conversation about kicking out Jamie, Rafe & Lydia approached Stephanie, who came over and took her place as Queen Bee, and granted them her approval. There is no doubt that Stephanie is ruling the roost. As I have said in the past, Stephanie is on her way out.

True colors
I just got done watching Survivor Live where once again Jamie was in total denial about his insanity, raving paranoia and maliciousness. (By the way, Dalton Ross & Jenna Morasco were scared stiff of Jamie - it was so frustrating to watch them skirt around Jamie's stark raving insanity - how lame!) Jamie is the kind of person that if he were somehow reincarnated in 4th century Rome, he would have given Constantine a run for his money. So was it really the "jungle" that was the cause of Jamie's looniness? No. It is my opinion that Survivor, or any other similar difficult circumstance in life, has the potential to bring out the true colors in people. Jamie didn't all the sudden become an obsessed nut in Guatemala - he was just showing what has already beneath the skin. Am I right here or what?

What's next?
Gary and Danni will rally to Judd against Stephanie. Stephanie is going home next episode.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 60%

Episode 09 - Here we go!

For all you Survivor fans out there - this is the moment you've all been waiting for - this is where the game starts to get fun.

Up until Jury time, the game of Survivor is strictly a sifting process. Alliances are made, sinners (see 10 Commandments post) the weak are voted out. Up to this point you could almost predict who was going to go - and even if you couldn't predict the exact person, you could certainly narrow it down to two or three people. But now that the tribes have merged and the jury begins forming - this game becomes extremely unpredictable.

You could see from Episode 09 that even members of the alliance are starting to become very paranoid. Even Stephanie is trying very hard to back off her aura as "leader" to make herself less of a target. Anything can happen at this point in the game. And although it's really an exercise in futility to predict the outcome - I'd like to give it a shot anyway:

Unlike previous series of Survivor, the females in Guatemala are too fractious to attempt to allign. Dannie needed one more female in her alliance in order to get together with Steph, Lydia and Cindy who currently feel no need to band together with Danni. So the female thing is out.
Here's another scenario that might be played out. Now that Gary has a guarantee for Final 4 - wouldn't you think that , Jamie or Cindy would try to allign with him? They HAVE to know (unless I'M wrong) that they are low priority on the main alliance. Why not make a play now for Gary's allegiance? Almost every Survivor since the game began has seen the primary alliance be overthrown. Over the next two episodes, we may see the same thing.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 75%

Episode 08 - "Hearts" not compatible with "$$"

First, I want to apologize for the mistake I made in thinking that the jury began last week - when in fact, there was one more person to go until the jury started. But since no one really reads this blog, I figure I'm safe in making all the mistakes I want :)

OK, I don't know about you, but in terms of "the game", this past episode was the best yet in Survivor Guatemala. I have a few items that I wish to call attention to:

First, I am shocked that Steph & Rafe aren't holding to their original alliance with Gary. We know this to be true from the one-on-one conversation that Rafe had with Gary when Gary said something like, "the RIGHT thing to do would be to vote of Jamie." To which Rafe replied, "but where would that leave US?" And then Gary responded, "you'd still be in power." So we know that Gary is no longer aligned with Steph and Rafe - although he may be the last in line to be voted off after Bobby John and Danni.

Was anyone else surprised to see that Cindy didn't vote for Jamie? She must know that she's the first to go after BJ, Danni & Gary and she must have realized that she had a chance to be integrated with BJ, Brandon, Danni & Gary. Plus the fact that she gave the big speech during tribal council about "having a heart" and all that crap, only to go with the majority vote.

I also can't wait to see if BJ or Jamie finally lose their cool and throw a punch at each other - because the rules of Survivor explicitly state that there can be NO physical altercations. If someone assaults another person, they would be immediately taken out of the game.

I'm now convinced that starvation and boredom really can make someone go crazy - in a big way. Case in point - Jamie. This guy is a perfect example of how strenuous circumstances can bring out the worst in people. I was watching a documentary recently on the Donner-Reed party and how their experience starving in the mountains during one of the worst winters in recorded history brought out the best in some people - and the worst in others. Jamie and Judd for that matter are examples of the latter. And to be quite honest, I'm not liking the smugness that Stephanie has been showing recently and I really do think she will go soon - now that physical competence is a huge liability.

As for Rafe, against his better judgement, he didn't end up voting for Jamie - which only means that risking his equity in the Steph alliance was worth far too much to cast a vote based solely on principle. I'm certain that he & Steph had a discussion where it was discussed that Jamie will go soon - just NOT YET.

In my mind, the probability of Rafe getting to the end just increased. He is not considered a physical threat (although he may kick it up a notch now that individual immunity is at stake). And he is part of a very strong alliance, as was evidenced in this past episode.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 75%