Rafe for the Million

Monday, December 12, 2005

Series Finale - A game WELL played

The end of another series of Survivor has come. But for me, this was not just another regular-edition of the Survivor TV show - this season featured Rafe Judkins - a first cousin on my mother's side and Survivor player extraordinaire. I always expected that Rafe would make it far in this game, and I was not disappointed.

Now - some of you may be disappointed not to have seen Rafe in the final two, as was I. But I propose to you that under the circumstances of A) Rafe, Steph and Danni in the final three and B) the unique requirements of this balancing challenge - it would NOT have turned out any differently.

I think Danni was absolutely the shoe-in for this particular challenge. She had two things going for her - height and weight, a lot of the former and a little of the latter. There was no possible way for Steph to win this challenge. She was just too short and her legs were not long enough to keep her propped up against that pole. So let's go back in time and pretend that Rafe didn't touch the pole. What would have happened?

Danni and Rae would have been competing together. Now, they had an agreement to take each other to the final two. But I don't believe that they would have done what past survivors have done, which is agree on taking each other and then ended the challenge. I think both Rafe and Danni, and particularly Danni, would have wanted to play the challenge out to the end.

So, it would have been Danni and Rafe up there struggling through the challenge. Now - I love Rafe and he is my first cousin, but he would have started to struggle before Danni and here's why: he was just as tall as Danni and was able to wedge himself pretty good against the pole, but Danni had one advantage over Rafe - she was skin and bones. Her leg muscles didn't need to support more than 50 pounds of body weight during the challenge. You could see this as the challenge progressed because she was rock-solid leaning against that pole. Her body wasn't slipping an inch, nor did I see any degree of discomfort in her posture or voice. Rafe's discomfort seemed to manifest itself as he attempted to reposition his body higher on the pole (which is what lost him the challenge). But even if he would have been able to keep his hands off the pole, in the passing of time, I believe he would have slowly slipped and lost to the 5'11", 100 lb. Danni. She just had too good of an advantage in this challenge. She would have won against both Stephanie and Rafe in this challenge, regardless of the mistakes made or time spent.

So what would Danni have done under these circumstances? Even without Rafe releasing her from the promise she made to him? We already learned from the finale that Danni would have committed one more act of betrayal in order to have a guarantee of winning the million dollars. There is no way she would have made good on her promise to Rafe and risk losing the final reward. She is a good religious girl and was the best of friends with Rafe through parts of this game, but I do not believe for a second that she would have taken Rafe to the final two.

Now - if Stephanie would have played a bit smarter and would not have put herself in a position to be such an enemy to the jury, then perhaps Danni would have kept her promise to Rafe. But going up against Steph in the final two was just like cashing a check for a million dollars - practically guaranteed.

So, although I'm disappointed that Rafe was not the Ultimate Survivor in Guatemala, I am extremely pleased that he made it to the highest levels of this game. What an amazing accomplishment! This, by far, was the most entertaining edition of Survivor yet. No subsequent series will be able to hold a candle to Guatemala.

Congratulations Rafe on a game well played! And best of luck to you on leveraging this experience in your next challenge.

Friday, December 09, 2005

Episode 13 - Superstition Plays Out

We can all thank the Survivor editors and producers for putting us on pins & needles last night during TC! It was the first time that I thought Rafe had a possibility of being voted out. It's getting down to the time where there is really no such thing as an alliance anymore - at least the good players know that. Lydia is the only one left that thinks that her alliance still stands by her. She will be the next one gone.

I've told you before that I believe that it will be Rafe and Stephanie at the final two. From Stephanie's perspective because she is tightest with Rafe and from Rafe's perspective because he has the greatest chance to win against Stephanie. But let's look through two scenarios that could possibly come to pass...

Scenario One

Episode 14 - Lydia is voted out (can't win immunity, lowest on totem pole, no strategic value, etc.)

Episode 15 - Immunity challenge between Rafe, Steph and Danni. So, what if Dannie (against the odds) wins this challenge? Who will be voted out then? It comes down to Danni's best chance to win and I think she sees that chance in Stephanie. Dannie loves Rafe, but I think she would be smart and take Steph to the final two if it came down to that. So, if Danni wins immunity on Episode 15 (finale), then Rafe's chances to win go in the toilet.

Remember, however, that this final challenge will be an endurance challenge. Standing on a pole for 10 hours or something to that effect. Who is best equipped to win this challenge? As much as I believe in Rafe's winning abilities, I believe that Stephanie has the athletic talent and mental will to win the endurance challenge. Yet, Danni is athletic too but her record for individual challenges is not stellar. Rafe is excellent at mind games, puzzles, untying knots, balancing, etc. but I don't think he would win an endurance challenge against Stephanie.

So the likliest outcome in Scenrio One is that Lydia is voted out next. Then Stephanie wins the immunity challenge. But in this case, will Stephanie actually take Rafe or Danni? I believe that she sees her best chance in Rafe because Dannie would probably get the most votes from the Jury because she's not seen as the mastermind behind some of their ousters. Therefore Stephanie takes Rafe and, as predicted before - Rafe wins against Steph.

Scenario Two

Episode 14 - Dannie is voted out because she is seen as too much of a threat to the original alliance and a competitor to Stephanie

Episode 15 - Wouldn't it be just so ironic if Lydia were to win the final endurance challenge?! This is within the realm of possibility here - although not a likely event. If Lydia were to win the endurance challenge, who would she take with her to the end? If she voted from her heart, it would have to be Rafe. Stephanie and Lydia have NOT developed the friendship that Rafe has built with Lydia. If she went with here mind, Lydia would have to choose Stephanie for the reason that ANYONE would chose Stephanie in the final two - she's pissed off too many people AND she already had her chance at winning. Steph is the right choice for anyone to take to the end.

What do you think will happen?

Rafe's current odds for the win - 95%

Monday, December 05, 2005

Episode 12 - Strategy Behind the Scenes

I'm currently on a business trip and consequently don't have much time to say all I want about this episode. Suffice it to say that Rafe is definitely running the show in Guatemala. Stephanie thinks she is running the show, and that should provide you with some insight as to how well Rafe is playing the game.

Rafe now has achieved a very difficult level in the game of Survivor. He now has a tight alliance, or several tight alliances, with each remaining member of the tribe. In addition to that, he has a way of using fractions in the tribe to get others to vote out members without it being his idea. Judd's ouster was a perfect example of this.

I have absolutely no inside information on this - but I'm sure that Rafe makes it to the final two. And my money is that he will be smart enough to take Stephanie with him.

Look for it in the finale coming up - Rafe and Stephanie as the final two. And if you read my last post, you know that the majority of the jury is NOT going to side with Stephanie.

Could Rafe actually win this game???

Rafe's current odds for the win - 90%