Rafe for the Million

Monday, December 12, 2005

Series Finale - A game WELL played

The end of another series of Survivor has come. But for me, this was not just another regular-edition of the Survivor TV show - this season featured Rafe Judkins - a first cousin on my mother's side and Survivor player extraordinaire. I always expected that Rafe would make it far in this game, and I was not disappointed.

Now - some of you may be disappointed not to have seen Rafe in the final two, as was I. But I propose to you that under the circumstances of A) Rafe, Steph and Danni in the final three and B) the unique requirements of this balancing challenge - it would NOT have turned out any differently.

I think Danni was absolutely the shoe-in for this particular challenge. She had two things going for her - height and weight, a lot of the former and a little of the latter. There was no possible way for Steph to win this challenge. She was just too short and her legs were not long enough to keep her propped up against that pole. So let's go back in time and pretend that Rafe didn't touch the pole. What would have happened?

Danni and Rae would have been competing together. Now, they had an agreement to take each other to the final two. But I don't believe that they would have done what past survivors have done, which is agree on taking each other and then ended the challenge. I think both Rafe and Danni, and particularly Danni, would have wanted to play the challenge out to the end.

So, it would have been Danni and Rafe up there struggling through the challenge. Now - I love Rafe and he is my first cousin, but he would have started to struggle before Danni and here's why: he was just as tall as Danni and was able to wedge himself pretty good against the pole, but Danni had one advantage over Rafe - she was skin and bones. Her leg muscles didn't need to support more than 50 pounds of body weight during the challenge. You could see this as the challenge progressed because she was rock-solid leaning against that pole. Her body wasn't slipping an inch, nor did I see any degree of discomfort in her posture or voice. Rafe's discomfort seemed to manifest itself as he attempted to reposition his body higher on the pole (which is what lost him the challenge). But even if he would have been able to keep his hands off the pole, in the passing of time, I believe he would have slowly slipped and lost to the 5'11", 100 lb. Danni. She just had too good of an advantage in this challenge. She would have won against both Stephanie and Rafe in this challenge, regardless of the mistakes made or time spent.

So what would Danni have done under these circumstances? Even without Rafe releasing her from the promise she made to him? We already learned from the finale that Danni would have committed one more act of betrayal in order to have a guarantee of winning the million dollars. There is no way she would have made good on her promise to Rafe and risk losing the final reward. She is a good religious girl and was the best of friends with Rafe through parts of this game, but I do not believe for a second that she would have taken Rafe to the final two.

Now - if Stephanie would have played a bit smarter and would not have put herself in a position to be such an enemy to the jury, then perhaps Danni would have kept her promise to Rafe. But going up against Steph in the final two was just like cashing a check for a million dollars - practically guaranteed.

So, although I'm disappointed that Rafe was not the Ultimate Survivor in Guatemala, I am extremely pleased that he made it to the highest levels of this game. What an amazing accomplishment! This, by far, was the most entertaining edition of Survivor yet. No subsequent series will be able to hold a candle to Guatemala.

Congratulations Rafe on a game well played! And best of luck to you on leveraging this experience in your next challenge.

Friday, December 09, 2005

Episode 13 - Superstition Plays Out

We can all thank the Survivor editors and producers for putting us on pins & needles last night during TC! It was the first time that I thought Rafe had a possibility of being voted out. It's getting down to the time where there is really no such thing as an alliance anymore - at least the good players know that. Lydia is the only one left that thinks that her alliance still stands by her. She will be the next one gone.

I've told you before that I believe that it will be Rafe and Stephanie at the final two. From Stephanie's perspective because she is tightest with Rafe and from Rafe's perspective because he has the greatest chance to win against Stephanie. But let's look through two scenarios that could possibly come to pass...

Scenario One

Episode 14 - Lydia is voted out (can't win immunity, lowest on totem pole, no strategic value, etc.)

Episode 15 - Immunity challenge between Rafe, Steph and Danni. So, what if Dannie (against the odds) wins this challenge? Who will be voted out then? It comes down to Danni's best chance to win and I think she sees that chance in Stephanie. Dannie loves Rafe, but I think she would be smart and take Steph to the final two if it came down to that. So, if Danni wins immunity on Episode 15 (finale), then Rafe's chances to win go in the toilet.

Remember, however, that this final challenge will be an endurance challenge. Standing on a pole for 10 hours or something to that effect. Who is best equipped to win this challenge? As much as I believe in Rafe's winning abilities, I believe that Stephanie has the athletic talent and mental will to win the endurance challenge. Yet, Danni is athletic too but her record for individual challenges is not stellar. Rafe is excellent at mind games, puzzles, untying knots, balancing, etc. but I don't think he would win an endurance challenge against Stephanie.

So the likliest outcome in Scenrio One is that Lydia is voted out next. Then Stephanie wins the immunity challenge. But in this case, will Stephanie actually take Rafe or Danni? I believe that she sees her best chance in Rafe because Dannie would probably get the most votes from the Jury because she's not seen as the mastermind behind some of their ousters. Therefore Stephanie takes Rafe and, as predicted before - Rafe wins against Steph.

Scenario Two

Episode 14 - Dannie is voted out because she is seen as too much of a threat to the original alliance and a competitor to Stephanie

Episode 15 - Wouldn't it be just so ironic if Lydia were to win the final endurance challenge?! This is within the realm of possibility here - although not a likely event. If Lydia were to win the endurance challenge, who would she take with her to the end? If she voted from her heart, it would have to be Rafe. Stephanie and Lydia have NOT developed the friendship that Rafe has built with Lydia. If she went with here mind, Lydia would have to choose Stephanie for the reason that ANYONE would chose Stephanie in the final two - she's pissed off too many people AND she already had her chance at winning. Steph is the right choice for anyone to take to the end.

What do you think will happen?

Rafe's current odds for the win - 95%

Monday, December 05, 2005

Episode 12 - Strategy Behind the Scenes

I'm currently on a business trip and consequently don't have much time to say all I want about this episode. Suffice it to say that Rafe is definitely running the show in Guatemala. Stephanie thinks she is running the show, and that should provide you with some insight as to how well Rafe is playing the game.

Rafe now has achieved a very difficult level in the game of Survivor. He now has a tight alliance, or several tight alliances, with each remaining member of the tribe. In addition to that, he has a way of using fractions in the tribe to get others to vote out members without it being his idea. Judd's ouster was a perfect example of this.

I have absolutely no inside information on this - but I'm sure that Rafe makes it to the final two. And my money is that he will be smart enough to take Stephanie with him.

Look for it in the finale coming up - Rafe and Stephanie as the final two. And if you read my last post, you know that the majority of the jury is NOT going to side with Stephanie.

Could Rafe actually win this game???

Rafe's current odds for the win - 90%

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Episode 11 - Starving Survivors

"And Esau said to Jacob, Feed me, I pray thee, with that same red pottage; for I am faint: And Jacob said, Sell me this day thy birthright. And Esau said, Behold, I am at the point to die: and what profit shall this birthright do to me? And Jacob said, Swear to me this day; and he sware unto him: and he sold his birthright unto Jacob."
Genesis 25:30-34

There's an analogy to be had here: Lydia is Esau. Jacob is a reward challenge with food. The birthright is the $1,000,000 Survivor grand prize. So what did Lydia do in this past episode? She sold her chance for the million dollars for a few shishkabobs! Or more accurately, for a lousy cup of fermented fish soup with some ground coffee beans - at least Esau was able to eat some hearty lentils. I suppose there's still a chance for Lydia in this game - stranger things have happened in Survivor (recall Sandra from Survivor Pearl Islands). Everyone in this game WILL have the chance to eat food again - but NOT everyone will have the chance to win $1,000,000 again. Perspective.

OK, so - what's up with Cindy's habitual nail biting???

Anyway - did anyone find it interesting that EVERYONE voted for Gary in TC? Even Danni and Lydia voted for Gary. This tells us something very interesting... this tells us that Danni was encouraged to vote Gary out to show the Four that she can be trusted. Someone was testing Danni's loyalty with this vote and it seems that she passed the test. Hmmmm.

Also, I admit that I was way off in my prediction from last week. I took a long shot and it didn't materialize. This foursome is WAY stronger than I realized. Actually, what I didn't realize is how tight Rafe & Cindy are. I almost think that Rafe and Cindy are tighter than Rafe & Stephanie. So how could that fact influence the final episodes? Let's look at how this may play out:

Episode 12: Lydia tries to break the Four but is unsuccessful. Lydia is next to go.

Episode 13: By showing loyalty in Episode 11, Danni is able to allign with Rafe, Cindy and Stephanie. Judd, if he loses immunity, is voted out.

Episode 14: If Danni loses immunity, she is voted out as the lowest person on the totem pole.

Episode 15: Every man/woman for themselves.

You know, I'm really going to be upset if Stephanie makes it all the way to the end. It would just be nice to see her get blindsided like Jamie was last episode wouldn't it? I remember how much I just wanted Tom from Survivor 10 to get blindsided - but by Day 30 it seems that the Survivors become increasingly unstable, unable to make strategic decisions. So, Tom ended up winning the game - just like Stephanie might here.

Voting Predictions
Let's just pretend Stephanie and Rafe made it to the end. Who would the jury choose?
Bobby John - Stephanie
Jamie - Stephanie
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Stephanie
Cindy - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Rafe wins

What about if Rafe & Cindy made it to the end?
BJ - Rafe
Jamie - Cindy
Gary - Rafe
Lydia - Rafe
Judd - Rafe
Danni - Rafe
Stephanie - Rafe
Rafe wins again

Rafe as a threat
So Rafe wins another immunity - very interesting. You know that Stephanie is turning over in her mind how things would need to turn out in order to be in her favor. Stephanie now knows Rafe is strong - but does that change the way she plays the game at this point? I'm not sure. One thing is for sure, the person that continues to win immunities may very well be one of the Survivors sitting at the final Tribal Council. This person could very well be Rafe. Little gay Mormon indeed.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 85%

Saturday, November 19, 2005

Episode 10 - The Madness of Jamie

Oh my - what an episode we were treated with last Thursday - the best yet!

Was it great to see Jamie go or what? He was, without a doubt, the looniest, most deranged, vindictive, unkind, dim-witted, malicious, self-obsessed Survivor to ever play the game - bar none! And by the way, I don't think it was the "game" that made him go nuts. More on this topic in a second. But first a few observations from my favorite episode of Guatemala.

Is Dannie cute as a button or what? My wife is reading over my shoulder right now so I can't get too detailed - but what a cutie she is - but NOT as cute as my wife. If Dannie were just a bit more strategic (which she may be off camera), she would be my favorite female Survivor of all time. I am a little concerned that she loves her dogs THAT much. What's up with that?

Cindy - I don't like her game play. Enough said.

So now let's get down to Rafe's performance in Episode 10. The first thing I wonder about is his drive to win immunity challenges. I realize that no one's ever "safe" in this game, but there's something to be said for strategic restraint in some of these challenges. I don't think Rafe's reached the point to where people are starting to eye him as a target (after all, he IS Steph's lap dog), but as he said in the show, he may want to start thinking about his winning percentage.

Secondly, it seemed to me from this episode that Rafe was the sole engineer of Jamie's ouster. Jamie finally gets under Rafe's skin. Rafe decided to vote him out. Rafe went to Lydia to get her support. Rafe & Lydia both bring it up with Queen Bee. Things happen. Could this be a foreshadowing of how future people will be voted out?

Top Dog
Did anyone find it telling that in the conversation about kicking out Jamie, Rafe & Lydia approached Stephanie, who came over and took her place as Queen Bee, and granted them her approval. There is no doubt that Stephanie is ruling the roost. As I have said in the past, Stephanie is on her way out.

True colors
I just got done watching Survivor Live where once again Jamie was in total denial about his insanity, raving paranoia and maliciousness. (By the way, Dalton Ross & Jenna Morasco were scared stiff of Jamie - it was so frustrating to watch them skirt around Jamie's stark raving insanity - how lame!) Jamie is the kind of person that if he were somehow reincarnated in 4th century Rome, he would have given Constantine a run for his money. So was it really the "jungle" that was the cause of Jamie's looniness? No. It is my opinion that Survivor, or any other similar difficult circumstance in life, has the potential to bring out the true colors in people. Jamie didn't all the sudden become an obsessed nut in Guatemala - he was just showing what has already beneath the skin. Am I right here or what?

What's next?
Gary and Danni will rally to Judd against Stephanie. Stephanie is going home next episode.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 60%

Friday, November 11, 2005

Episode 09 - Here we go!

For all you Survivor fans out there - this is the moment you've all been waiting for - this is where the game starts to get fun.

Up until Jury time, the game of Survivor is strictly a sifting process. Alliances are made, sinners (see 10 Commandments post) the weak are voted out. Up to this point you could almost predict who was going to go - and even if you couldn't predict the exact person, you could certainly narrow it down to two or three people. But now that the tribes have merged and the jury begins forming - this game becomes extremely unpredictable.

You could see from Episode 09 that even members of the alliance are starting to become very paranoid. Even Stephanie is trying very hard to back off her aura as "leader" to make herself less of a target. Anything can happen at this point in the game. And although it's really an exercise in futility to predict the outcome - I'd like to give it a shot anyway:

Unlike previous series of Survivor, the females in Guatemala are too fractious to attempt to allign. Dannie needed one more female in her alliance in order to get together with Steph, Lydia and Cindy who currently feel no need to band together with Danni. So the female thing is out.
Here's another scenario that might be played out. Now that Gary has a guarantee for Final 4 - wouldn't you think that , Jamie or Cindy would try to allign with him? They HAVE to know (unless I'M wrong) that they are low priority on the main alliance. Why not make a play now for Gary's allegiance? Almost every Survivor since the game began has seen the primary alliance be overthrown. Over the next two episodes, we may see the same thing.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 75%

Friday, November 04, 2005

Episode 08 - "Hearts" not compatible with "$$"

First, I want to apologize for the mistake I made in thinking that the jury began last week - when in fact, there was one more person to go until the jury started. But since no one really reads this blog, I figure I'm safe in making all the mistakes I want :)

OK, I don't know about you, but in terms of "the game", this past episode was the best yet in Survivor Guatemala. I have a few items that I wish to call attention to:

First, I am shocked that Steph & Rafe aren't holding to their original alliance with Gary. We know this to be true from the one-on-one conversation that Rafe had with Gary when Gary said something like, "the RIGHT thing to do would be to vote of Jamie." To which Rafe replied, "but where would that leave US?" And then Gary responded, "you'd still be in power." So we know that Gary is no longer aligned with Steph and Rafe - although he may be the last in line to be voted off after Bobby John and Danni.

Was anyone else surprised to see that Cindy didn't vote for Jamie? She must know that she's the first to go after BJ, Danni & Gary and she must have realized that she had a chance to be integrated with BJ, Brandon, Danni & Gary. Plus the fact that she gave the big speech during tribal council about "having a heart" and all that crap, only to go with the majority vote.

I also can't wait to see if BJ or Jamie finally lose their cool and throw a punch at each other - because the rules of Survivor explicitly state that there can be NO physical altercations. If someone assaults another person, they would be immediately taken out of the game.

I'm now convinced that starvation and boredom really can make someone go crazy - in a big way. Case in point - Jamie. This guy is a perfect example of how strenuous circumstances can bring out the worst in people. I was watching a documentary recently on the Donner-Reed party and how their experience starving in the mountains during one of the worst winters in recorded history brought out the best in some people - and the worst in others. Jamie and Judd for that matter are examples of the latter. And to be quite honest, I'm not liking the smugness that Stephanie has been showing recently and I really do think she will go soon - now that physical competence is a huge liability.

As for Rafe, against his better judgement, he didn't end up voting for Jamie - which only means that risking his equity in the Steph alliance was worth far too much to cast a vote based solely on principle. I'm certain that he & Steph had a discussion where it was discussed that Jamie will go soon - just NOT YET.

In my mind, the probability of Rafe getting to the end just increased. He is not considered a physical threat (although he may kick it up a notch now that individual immunity is at stake). And he is part of a very strong alliance, as was evidenced in this past episode.

Rafe's current odds for the win - 75%